In 2015, for the first time ever, more than half of the growth in electricity generation capacity came from renewable sources. This is according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2015. The document was compiled with the help of peer reviewers from across the spectrum of expertise (and vested interests!) - industry, government, NGOs and academic institutions.
The report being an "Energy Outlook" and not "Climate Change Outlook" however means input from commercial sources is to be expected and indeed necessary. Further, the IEA have been criticised in the past for not supporting renewable energy enough. If those criticisms were true, the IEA's position in the 2015 report would reflect considerable progress in the viability of renewable energy. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) echoed the IEA's findings, reporting the record 8.3% growth in renewable energy capacity.
The installed capacity of renewable energy has managed to trump that of coal's (barely - Figure 1). This is especially good news because out of coal, oil and natural gas, coal produces the most carbon dioxide per unit of energy. However, the trends of the fossil fuels are extremely complicated. The oil price plunge in 2014* took most by surprise, and oil prices have a complex relationship with gas. Overreliance on trends in the fossil fuels as a way of judging the success of renewables therefore is not advisable, and we should not allow ourselves to become complacent.
China is a consistent area of focus in reports of the global energy makeup, for the present and the future. It is one of the largest economies in the world and forecast to grow to the number one spot. It emits more carbon dioxide than any other country in the world. But according to Bloomberg, by numerous renewable energy metrics (investment, total capacity, growth), it is a leader. China therefore represents a key and quite confusing player on the renewable energy stage. The IRENA (2016) lists ‘falling costs for renewable energy technologies, and a host of economic, social and environmental drivers’ to explain the increase in renewables. As renewable energy technologies develop and scale of production continues to increase, the falling costs are relatively straightforward, and China’s role as a massive consumer and producer of this technology is clear.
China, in its recent Five-Year Plans, has introduced clear goals of reducing energy intensity. This policy-driven change, spurred by the economic, social and environmental drivers the IRENA refer to, shows a Chinese commitment to moving towards more renewable energy. Structural shifts in the economy, moving towards the less energy-intensive, services sector; plans for an emissions trading scheme; and mandatory efficiency standards are all changing the projected outlook of China’s energy consumption.
An important economic driver in play across the world is the issue of subsidies. Subsidies for renewable energy totalled $112 billion in 2014; subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $493 billion in 2014. The difference is vast. Since 2009, fossil fuels have enjoyed a $103 billion increase in subsidies. The absurdity of the situation is clear, especially when the high cost of renewable energy is so often compared to the roaring, capitalist success of fossil fuels. The IEA do note however that decomposition analysis showed recent policy changes have seen a restriction in the fossil fuel subsidy increases (Figure 2). The reduction in oil prices, which carried the risk of countries increasing their reliance on fossil fuels (IRENA, 2016), has been used by certain countries like India and Indonesia as an opportunity to reduce fossil fuel subsidies (IEA, 2015).
Most of the renewable energy capacity currently comes from hydropower (1,209 GW), considerably greater than any of the other sources; wind and solar are the next highest at 432 GW and 227 GW respectively (IRENA, 2016). The IRENA analysis also found that the hydropower comes primarily from ‘large-scale plants’. The prominence of hydropower in the renewable energy mix is a serious concern, now and for the future.
Hydropower projects, especially the big ones, have received extensive criticism for several decades. They have been accused of offering a poor return on investment, at the cost of the local ecology, destruction of local people’s livelihoods, and all too often involve foreign investment (and, invariably, influence) driving the projects through. The push for an Integrated River Basin Management framework would invariably see a reduction in the production of these hydropower dams. Maintenance and continued use of existing dams would also be thrown into question, as hydropower projects struggle to fit the demands of a multi-sectoral, inclusive solution (Savenije and Van der Zaag, 2008).
Whilst record increase in renewable energy growth sounds positive, it is still far too small to bring about the necessary scale of change. Only 23% of energy in 2015 was from renewable sources, more of the global population is moving away from traditional biomass sources of energy to electricity and nations are continuing to heavily subsidise fossil fuels (the UK has in fact reduced renewable energy subsidies). China’s aligning of economic and environmental priorities is encouraging, as are developments in India. However, we must move away from “promising” and begin achieving significant, material results. The issues of China (and other developing countries), the place of hydropower in a sustainable world and the lacklustre leadership of developed countries all warrant further research.
*To read this article without a subscription, search "Winners and losers emerge from the oil price slump FT" on Google.
The report being an "Energy Outlook" and not "Climate Change Outlook" however means input from commercial sources is to be expected and indeed necessary. Further, the IEA have been criticised in the past for not supporting renewable energy enough. If those criticisms were true, the IEA's position in the 2015 report would reflect considerable progress in the viability of renewable energy. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) echoed the IEA's findings, reporting the record 8.3% growth in renewable energy capacity.
The installed capacity of renewable energy has managed to trump that of coal's (barely - Figure 1). This is especially good news because out of coal, oil and natural gas, coal produces the most carbon dioxide per unit of energy. However, the trends of the fossil fuels are extremely complicated. The oil price plunge in 2014* took most by surprise, and oil prices have a complex relationship with gas. Overreliance on trends in the fossil fuels as a way of judging the success of renewables therefore is not advisable, and we should not allow ourselves to become complacent.
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| Fig 1 Total global installed cumulative capacity in 2015 |
China is a consistent area of focus in reports of the global energy makeup, for the present and the future. It is one of the largest economies in the world and forecast to grow to the number one spot. It emits more carbon dioxide than any other country in the world. But according to Bloomberg, by numerous renewable energy metrics (investment, total capacity, growth), it is a leader. China therefore represents a key and quite confusing player on the renewable energy stage. The IRENA (2016) lists ‘falling costs for renewable energy technologies, and a host of economic, social and environmental drivers’ to explain the increase in renewables. As renewable energy technologies develop and scale of production continues to increase, the falling costs are relatively straightforward, and China’s role as a massive consumer and producer of this technology is clear.
China, in its recent Five-Year Plans, has introduced clear goals of reducing energy intensity. This policy-driven change, spurred by the economic, social and environmental drivers the IRENA refer to, shows a Chinese commitment to moving towards more renewable energy. Structural shifts in the economy, moving towards the less energy-intensive, services sector; plans for an emissions trading scheme; and mandatory efficiency standards are all changing the projected outlook of China’s energy consumption.
An important economic driver in play across the world is the issue of subsidies. Subsidies for renewable energy totalled $112 billion in 2014; subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $493 billion in 2014. The difference is vast. Since 2009, fossil fuels have enjoyed a $103 billion increase in subsidies. The absurdity of the situation is clear, especially when the high cost of renewable energy is so often compared to the roaring, capitalist success of fossil fuels. The IEA do note however that decomposition analysis showed recent policy changes have seen a restriction in the fossil fuel subsidy increases (Figure 2). The reduction in oil prices, which carried the risk of countries increasing their reliance on fossil fuels (IRENA, 2016), has been used by certain countries like India and Indonesia as an opportunity to reduce fossil fuel subsidies (IEA, 2015).
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| Fig 2 Contributing factors to change in value of fossil fuel subsidies |
Most of the renewable energy capacity currently comes from hydropower (1,209 GW), considerably greater than any of the other sources; wind and solar are the next highest at 432 GW and 227 GW respectively (IRENA, 2016). The IRENA analysis also found that the hydropower comes primarily from ‘large-scale plants’. The prominence of hydropower in the renewable energy mix is a serious concern, now and for the future.
Hydropower projects, especially the big ones, have received extensive criticism for several decades. They have been accused of offering a poor return on investment, at the cost of the local ecology, destruction of local people’s livelihoods, and all too often involve foreign investment (and, invariably, influence) driving the projects through. The push for an Integrated River Basin Management framework would invariably see a reduction in the production of these hydropower dams. Maintenance and continued use of existing dams would also be thrown into question, as hydropower projects struggle to fit the demands of a multi-sectoral, inclusive solution (Savenije and Van der Zaag, 2008).
Whilst record increase in renewable energy growth sounds positive, it is still far too small to bring about the necessary scale of change. Only 23% of energy in 2015 was from renewable sources, more of the global population is moving away from traditional biomass sources of energy to electricity and nations are continuing to heavily subsidise fossil fuels (the UK has in fact reduced renewable energy subsidies). China’s aligning of economic and environmental priorities is encouraging, as are developments in India. However, we must move away from “promising” and begin achieving significant, material results. The issues of China (and other developing countries), the place of hydropower in a sustainable world and the lacklustre leadership of developed countries all warrant further research.
*To read this article without a subscription, search "Winners and losers emerge from the oil price slump FT" on Google.
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