The Internet of Things - it's not all doom and gloom

There is hope.

The inherent "connectedness" that the IoT will result in would help to enable smarter homes, buildings, power grids and cities. Information will be more readily shared, analysed faster and acted upon in real-time. Transport for London is already making use of the IoT to begin informing planning decisions, react to disruptions within the network and keep users updated (see London Datastore and Shah, 2016) The IoT therefore creates opportunities for reducing congestion, optimising renewable energy utilisation etc. (Dragland, 2012).

The smart cities idea is attracting increasingly more attention. Whilst there is undoubtedly plenty of optimism/wishful thinking in discussions of what smart cities herald, it is still tough to overstate the significance of technological development and disruption. Sources of data, methods of data analysis and general capabilities will grow in the future, as they have done for the last few decades. Ramirez (2016) looks at the case of solar-powered, smart bins in Colombia. There are certainly flaws and limitations to the products and their implementations, but they show promise and demonstrate how the IoT can help as opposed to just hinder. The article looks specifically at smart waste solutions, but still identifies real sources of emissions reductions through that technology (for those interested in smart cities, The Guardian has a special section dedicated to it and is very accessible; this article on smart cars in smart cities, and this one on climate-smart cities are a good place to start).

Solar roofs in Freiburg, Germany show that
green building standards could cut electricity use.

The idea of energy harvesting - using ambient energy to sustain low power devices - is receiving more attention as the IoT continues to develop (Haight et al., 2016). Many of the devices that make up the IoT do not draw on much energy individually, but they are numerous. Smart cities would have such devices all over the place (cities like London already have a lot because of the work of TfL as mentioned earlier). Whilst this does not reduce the energy consumption of the more energy-hungry additions to the IoT, proactive action on this front would still serve to prevent a massive proliferation of grid-dependent devices.

Haight et al. (2016) discuss the increasing improvements in energy efficiency derived from ultra-low power processors, allowing for small, thin solar cells to run them. 'Multielemental kesterite' solar cells are made of earth-abundant materials, are exceedingly thin and can be easily optimised for indoor lighting by altering the band gap of the solar cell. They are identified as a potential source of solar cell technology to run low power devices. Further research by Wang et al. (2016) has seen the development of a single device that can scavenge wind and solar energy. They identified the lack of effective wind energy solutions that are suitable for urban areas, and so developed a device that is approximately 120 mm × 22 mm. This small device can individually and simultaneously generate power from solar and wind energy to run low-power devices. They could be installed extensively on the roofs of buildings and homes to self-power certain functions of smart cities that rely on the IoT.

The introduction of the IoT to the running of cities therefore presents opportunities to rethink how energy is used and drive reductions in consumption. Smart metering, in much the same way that it has helped in industry (see my post on the IoT and Industry Energy), can help draw attention to energy consumption for ordinary people. Anda and Temmen (2014) highlight the success of properly implemented smart metering programmes in achieving behavioural change.

Smart metering is a part of the movement towards smart grids, which can intelligently and autonomously handle shifting loads and variable energy generation (Anda and Temmen, 2014). They also present more opportunities for "end-users" to feed back into the grid with energy they themselves generate (Dragland, 2012). This would be alongside informed people taking an active part in regulating their energy use by making visible the previously invisible consumption. The resilience of the grid is improved whilst energy consumption is optimised (Young et al., 2016). Figure 1 lists the advantages smart grids hold for each stakeholder. This setup would also aid the adoption of renewable energy and help address the problems of variable energy generation that renewables suffer from.

Fig 1 Benefits cross section for key stakeholders

The mistake that I think Hazas et al. (2016) make is that whilst they recognise the increase in devices, they don't recognise the potential for change that those devices bring with them. Energy use does, in many cases, perversely drive energy use. But the IoT, through smart meters and smart grids, could still help to create efficient behaviours and practises, and speed up the transition to renewable energy. de Decker's suggestion of an inbuilt speed limit that Hazas et al. refer to would not be the correct solution. The growth of the IoT is too organic to introduce and enforce this sort of restriction, and I struggle to see how you could decide on a limit when it would almost certainly restrict innovation and growth (read: profit). 

The route of energy harvesting and smart tech-enabled solutions is the one that is likely to be the best. It allows commercial interests to be aligned with energy reduction, and these solutions themselves will grow to be large businesses. We will undoubtedly require more conservative voices to keep up the pressure and force a focus on reducing consumption. But enforcing data restrictions is not viable, and any government that tries it would likely be met with apocalyptic prophecies of businesses fleeing to enlightened, "pro-business" countries.

For those that are of a more technical disposition, this article may be of some interest.

The Energy of the Internet

The IoT heralds an age of continuously streaming data. Billions of sensors will be using the internet without any direct human action required. As ever, change on such scale brings opportunity as well as risk. In the context of tackling climate change by limiting greenhouse gas emissions, some of these opportunities and risks have already been looked at.

The rise in internet growth and energy consumption of data centres featured in the Digital Footprint article. This post will expand on those topics, with a greater focus on the IoT.

Internet-related energy consumption goes beyond data centres. And whilst energy efficiency is increasing, the rate of advancement in technologies (4G mobile data, 4K video, 3D TV etc.) means consumption continues to rise. Researchers from Lancaster University's DEMAND Centre argue that the primary constraints on internet use - population and waking hours - will be weakened with the IoT, as autonomous sensors and processors proliferate: 'some predictions suggest that production and use of information and communication technologies might grow to around 20% of global supply by 2030' (Hazas et al., 2016: 1). They highlight the fact that nobody is 'paying attention' to the devices and algorithms that are quietly building up in number and increasing energy consumption.

A recent Cisco white paper pointed to the 74% increase in mobile data growth from 2014 to 2015. It further stated that '4G connections represented only 14 percent of mobile connections in 2015, [but] account for 47 percent of mobile data traffic'. Faster mobile data connections will only serve to increase internet use, and change users' ideas of "low", "normal" and "high" data levels. This is coupled with projections for rapid growth in "smart" devices (see Figure 1). Faster mobile data therefore presents more opportunities for connected cars, health devices etc., further driving up energy consumption.

Over the last decade, data growth has been dramatic, and forecasts predict a similar ongoing pattern. Since this is associated with increasing electricity consumption, such a trend is significant to global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. (Hazas et al., 2016)

Fig 1 Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices and Connections

The disconnection between internet use and direct/obvious human interaction presents a serious challenge in attempting to limit energy consumption. Turning lights off and unplugging electrical appliances are behavioural changes that have come from people (you, me and everyone else) being aware of their energy use and attributing value to it beyond the pennies it costs in electricity bills. Generating awareness about the impact of the internet, which is arguably more intangible than the lights, will present significant difficulties.

The Internet of Things and Industry Energy

In a previous post, Digital Footprint, I mentioned the increasing number of connected devices used by society today, including ones that are not as immediately obvious - like "smart" meters, "smart" TVs, "smart" watches. These sorts of devices form part of the Internet of Things (IoT). The IoT is the growing body of devices connected to computer networks. These can range from vehicles on our roads to tiny sensors in a water company's pipe network (if you're interested in the IoT and want to learn more about the different applications, check out Meola, 2015 and the two reports I use in the next paragraph for accessible introductions).

They allow for the gathering and communication of data and a host of uses. Some of them are already finding their ways into our homes (the Nest thermostat is a good example), but there is considerable growth forecast in these devices, as increasingly more appliances are connected to networks. The IoT has been identified as a major market for the future. Even conservative estimates place the economic impact of IoT at $3.9tn (2015 USD) by 2025 (McKinsey, 2015 - download full report, see Figure 1). An industry report identified several industries that are benefiting from the IoT, including 'manufacturing, mining, agriculture, oil and gas, and utilities' (Accenture, 2015 - download full report), which will therefore see growth in the IoT with a large drive coming from the commercial sector.

Fig 1 Potential economic impact of IoT by 2025

Reports and research have consistently pointed towards efficiencies derived from the IoT that can drive energy and resource consumption down. Industry is a good and well researched example of this. Currently, industry accounts for one-third of global energy use and 40% of CO₂ emissions (Brown et al., 2012). Improvements in industry practises and operational efficiency could therefore seriously reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Bunse et al. (2011) identify energy efficiency as the key short-term tactic in the wider strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Citing research by the SPRU and Swedish case studies, Bunse et al. (ibid.) state that a major barrier to energy efficiency improvements has been the relatively low priority given to energy management. This has been enabled by the lack of sub-metering in industry (Shrouf and Miragliotta, 2015), and so granular energy consumption data is not gathered. Thus, improvements to energy efficiency go beyond just improvements to specific processes of production, and begin to incorporate availability of data and management approaches (Weinert et al., 2011).

In recent years there has been an increasing focus placed on energy efficiency. This has been driven by energy costs and their unpredictability; emissions-related regulations; and changing customer preferences towards "green products" (BCG, 2009). Real-time data provided by the IoT allows an awareness of energy consumption (Haller et al., 2009). New connected devices therefore offer the opportunity to integrate energy use-awareness into industrial processes (Shrouf and Miragliotta, 2015; McKinsey, 2015), driving behavioural, cultural and value change. Figure 2 shows an effective framework for introducing IoT-enabled data into the decision-making process.

Fig 2 Framework for IoT-based energy data integration in Production Management decisions

However, whilst the IoT has been identified as a source of energy efficiency innovation, Bunse et al.'s (2011) gap analysis between industry and the literature highlights the need for better, more practical frameworks to introduce more effective energy management. With the IoT rapidly developing, and framework suggestions being developed (Shrouf and Miragliotta, 2015), there is promise in the delivery of decreases in energy consumption. Whether that can be sustained even when the cost savings are not immediate and substantive will depend largely on policy and public pressure.

The IoT and its advances are not just isolated to industry. The next post will therefore explore other areas where the IoT may affect energy consumption.

Oil and Gas are cheap... and there's lots to go around

The World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2015), which I read for a previous post, briefly discussed the possible effects of the sustained lower oil prices since 2014. Whilst looking further into that issue, I came across this article from the Harvard Business Review (2016). As well as oil, it also touches upon the effect of unconventional and disruptive sources of non-renewables, such as shale gas.

Shale gas is argued to be affecting the current oil price (Makan, 2013*; Elliott, 2015), and will continue to do so in the future (PwC, 2013). As gas is the only non-renewable energy resource that is expected to see increased usage, lower prices and ample reserves may have significant implications for emissions reductions (IEA, 2015: 21). This is especially true for the US, which is a major player in the shale gas business (Haug, 2012). Hartmann and Sam also note that shale gas producers can act as 'quasi swing producers' (2016), which points to the power of policy in potentially shaping market prices of the future.

More robust oil-producing nations (see Figure 1) are now beginning to diversify their energy mix, with moves towards shale gas (which has a lower carbon intensity than coal and oil) and renewables. These investments present significant new opportunities, as cash-rich economies such as Saudi Arabia could help drive innovation, lower costs and share technology for the renewable industry. The most robust economies all also happen to be in areas that experience intense solar radiation (that could mean big things for solar...).

Fig 1 Low oil prices create high risks

Haug (2012) states that shale gas and renewables are complementary advances, with both helping towards the emissions reductions that are necessary to combat climate change. Without the cripplingly high oil prices and rapidly-depleting reserves that had long been predicted, it is vital that emissions reductions are still kept on the agenda and as a priority. In a future post, I'd like to see if shale gas does have a positive part to play in the energy mix of the future; or whether it's just a route to complacency and broken emissions promises.

*To read this article without a subscription, search "US shale gas to lead to lower oil prices FT" on Google.

The Power of the Brand

Recently, Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla, Chairman of SolarCity, and more...) introduced the Solar Roof. Solar tiles as opposed to solar panels.

SolarCity's Solar Roof

Solar tiles are not new, but it wasn't until Tesla arrived on the scene that they received the level of attention they now do. The same goes for home battery systems. Tesla are already selling the second version of their home battery, Powerwall 2, which can store energy generated or pulled from the grid during the day to then power the home at night. All of this, the cars, the batteries, the tiles, has been presented to consumers with the same slick style as Apple. Whether the tiles prove to be as disruptive as Tesla's cars is yet to be seen. But it does highlight the significance of industry, how it adopts renewable energy and how they capture people's imagination (and money). 

We the consumer do not base our spending habits on education, petitions and legislation alone. So we shouldn't just rely on these things to see electric cars, solar cells and other such products flourish (and they are, ultimately, products). If we hope to translate scientific advances and suggestions into real-world transformation, encouraging faster uptake of renewable energy and accompanying technologies will be key. Betting everything on the success of lone figures such as Elon Musk is risky business, and just a bit unfair!